Bitcoin Options Traders Bet 68 Million on Post-Election Breakout to 90K

The cryptocurrency market is entering what analysts describe as one of the most consequential weeks of 2026, with Bitcoin hovering near the psychologically critical $80,000 level as traders brace for a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, mega-cap tech earnings, and a massive options bet that suggests a post-midterm election breakout to $90,000.

Bitcoin steadied near $80,400 on Monday after dipping to approximately $79,300 during the Asian trading session, marking five consecutive days of sell-offs. The total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly $2.65 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance holding firm at 60.7%. Ether traded around $2,337, down 0.3% over 24 hours, while the Fear and Greed Index sat at a neutral 50.

The $68 Million Options Bet

Perhaps the most striking development is a $68 million Bitcoin options position targeting a breakout to $90,000 following the upcoming midterm elections. This aggressive wager, reported by CoinDesk on October 26, highlights a growing conviction among sophisticated traders that political outcomes in November could serve as a catalyst for the next leg of Bitcoin price appreciation.

The position reflects a broader theme in the crypto derivatives market: while spot prices have been under pressure, options traders are positioning for volatility expansion. Open interest in Bitcoin options has been climbing, and the skew between puts and calls—while still favoring protective puts—has been narrowing. The busiest contracts on Monday were the October 28 $77,000 put and the $84,000 call, suggesting traders are hedging downside risk while maintaining upside exposure.

Federal Reserve Decision Looms

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed raised interest rates in September, and markets currently assign a 90% probability to no change at this meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, there is approximately an 80% chance of another rate increase in December.

The high-interest-rate environment has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Global macro funds have been liquidating high-beta digital assets ahead of the FOMC meeting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have also been a concern, with $138 million in outflows on Friday alone, bringing the two-day total exit to $772 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

Geopolitical Factors at Play

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical developments are adding layers of complexity to the crypto market outlook. Oil prices retreated on Monday, with U.S. crude falling approximately 2% to near $101 per barrel and Brent slipping below $110, as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran and President Donald Trump indicated there would be no military strike that day, though he kept the option open.

S&P 500 index futures rose around 0.3% after Friday’s selloff in U.S. equities. Meanwhile, Brazil’s stock market plunged 20% after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva unexpectedly secured a fourth term, adding to global market uncertainty. Gold traded slightly above $4,000 an ounce, while the U.S. Dollar Index remained firm just below 102.

Galaxy Digital Sees Bull Market Forming

Despite the near-term headwinds, Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn argued in a report released Monday that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the cryptocurrency is now in the early stages of what could become its next bull market. Thorn believes Bitcoin can return to at least $125,000.

The thesis rests on several pillars. First, much of the selling that drove Bitcoin down from its October 2025 peak has run its course. Asset managers have cut their net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures by 57% since the peak, suggesting speculative traders have largely exited. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, indicating that longer-term investors continue to accumulate even as speculators retreat.

Second, Bitcoin has climbed back above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it—a technical pattern that has historically marked the end of bear markets. Third, mounting U.S. debt and the risk of further currency debasement make Bitcoin’s fixed supply increasingly attractive as a store of value.

Key risk levels: Thorn cautioned that a sustained drop below $76,540 would call the recovery thesis into question. However, his broader argument is that Bitcoin no longer needs a surge of speculative buying to find its footing, as much of that money has already departed and the remaining investors appear willing to wait.

Derivatives Market Signals

The derivatives market painted a mixed picture on Monday. Total open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion over 24 hours, while volume fell 1.78%. Liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million compared to the prior day, and the long/short taker volume ratio split of 50.34% to 49.66% showed no meaningful directional tilt.

• Funding rates remained mildly positive across major cryptocurrencies, with no crowded positioning. This suggests that demand for leverage is ordinary and no extreme sentiment has built up.
• Standout movers included Zcash (ZEC), which saw open interest grow 8.17% alongside a 3.84% price gain, and Ethena (ENA), where open interest surged 16.85% against an 8.36% price advance—though some of that money has begun to exit.
• Put skew remained intact for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The one-month BTC skew fell to approximately 12.5% from 14.5%, indicating puts still cost more than calls, though the gap narrowed slightly.

South Korea Delays Crypto Tax Again

In regulatory news, South Korea is considering a fourth delay of its cryptocurrency gains tax, potentially pushing implementation to 2029. The proposed delay reflects ongoing challenges in crafting a taxation framework that balances investor protection with market competitiveness. This development is particularly significant given South Korea’s status as one of the world’s most active crypto trading markets.

Meanwhile, Canada opened a consultation on draft stablecoin rules, maintaining a ban on yields for stablecoin holders. The regulatory divergence between jurisdictions continues to create a fragmented global landscape for crypto compliance, with some regions embracing digital assets while others maintain cautious approaches.

Arthur Hayes Liquidates Directional Book

The weekend set a cautious tone when Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and current chief investment officer of Maelstrom fund, announced he had sold his entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, citing macro and geopolitical risk. The move by such a prominent crypto native underscored the extent to which even long-time believers are de-risking amid elevated uncertainty.

However, Hayes’s decision to liquidate directional positions does not necessarily signal a long-term bearish outlook. Rather, it reflects the reality that in a high-rate environment with geopolitical tensions running high, capital preservation has taken priority over risk-taking, even among crypto’s most seasoned participants.

The Week Ahead

This week presents a dense calendar of market-moving events. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all announce interest-rate decisions. Microsoft and Amazon report quarterly earnings. Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, also reports earnings, providing a barometer for institutional crypto engagement.

For Bitcoin, the key levels to watch are $79,300 on the downside—the Asian session low—and $80,400 on the upside. A break below $79,000 could accelerate selling toward the $76,540 level that Galaxy Digital identified as critical. Conversely, a hold above $80,000 through the Fed decision could embolden the options traders positioning for a post-election rally.

The convergence of monetary policy, political catalysts, and institutional flows makes this week a potential inflection point for the crypto market. Whether the $68 million options bet on $90,000 Bitcoin proves prescient or premature will depend largely on how these forces interact over the coming days and weeks.

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Edited by Palawan @QUE.COM
Website: https://QUE.COM Intelligence
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